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Latest analysis
Data-backed reads on players and fits, built on our own numbers.
PLAYER OUTLOOK
Hunter Henry Fantasy 2026: Is the Patriots TE a Late-Round Streamer to Target?
Hunter Henry is going outside the top-15 tight ends after quietly leading New England in red-zone targets in 2025. The bull case is a real scoring role with an ascending young quarterback at a TE20 price. The bear case is the part the price already knows: possession-level yardage, touchdown-dependent scoring, and a receiving room that just added two veteran wideouts.
FFMatchup
DEEP STAT BOARD
Fantasy 2026 Pass-Catching Running Backs: The PPR Floor the Goal-Line Board Misses
Goal-line touches find the touchdown equity. Receptions and targets find the floor that shows up every week, script-proof, in PPR. Here are the running backs who caught the most passes in 2025, and how to tell a true three-down back from a passing-down specialist whose rushing ceiling is capped.
FFMatchup
PLAYER OUTLOOK
Derrick Henry Fantasy 2026: Is the Ravens RB Still an Elite Fantasy Bet?
Henry led every back in the league in goal-line work and finished second among running backs in rushing touchdowns in 2025, which is the kind of scoring equity that survives a down week. The bull case is a league-leading touchdown role at a back-end RB1 price. The honest caps are a thin receiving floor and a mobile quarterback who can poach a red-zone carry.
FFMatchup
This week · Week 1
This week around the league
all 16 games final · every game shows the start/sit calls we staked on it, graded in public.
21 calls19 hit
NE10@
SEA13FinalTop J. Smith-Njigba 26.223 calls17 hit
SF27@
LAR7FinalTop B. Purdy 21.124 calls18 hit
ARI26@
LAC14FinalTop T. McBride 24.521 calls16 hit
ATL13@
PIT20FinalTop B. Robinson 31.320 calls18 hit
BAL41@
IND23FinalTop D. Henry 35.324 calls17 hit
BUF36@
HOU31FinalTop J. Allen 35.725 calls17 hit
CHI59@
CAR37FinalTop C. Williams 37.322 calls19 hit
CLE10@
JAX34FinalTop T. Lawrence 26.122 calls18 hit
DAL20@
NYG28FinalTop I. Likely 27.823 calls13 hit
GB22@
MIN39FinalTop C. Watson 32.717 calls17 hit
MIA13@
LV27FinalTop A. Jeanty 32.722 calls17 hit
NO30@
DET31FinalTop J. Gibbs 33.623 calls21 hit
NYJ23@
TEN10FinalTop B. Hall 19.823 calls16 hit
TB27@
CIN33FinalTop B. Irving 20.322 calls16 hit
WSH22@
PHI24FinalTop J. Hurts 24.722 calls15 hit
DEN10@
KC31FinalTop K. Walker III 34.1
NE10@SEA13FinalTop J. Smith-Njigba 26.223 calls17 hitSF27@LAR7FinalTop B. Purdy 21.124 calls18 hitARI26@LAC14FinalTop T. McBride 24.521 calls16 hitATL13@PIT20FinalTop B. Robinson 31.320 calls18 hitBAL41@IND23FinalTop D. Henry 35.324 calls17 hitBUF36@HOU31FinalTop J. Allen 35.725 calls17 hitCHI59@CAR37FinalTop C. Williams 37.322 calls19 hitCLE10@JAX34FinalTop T. Lawrence 26.122 calls18 hitDAL20@NYG28FinalTop I. Likely 27.823 calls13 hitGB22@MIN39FinalTop C. Watson 32.717 calls17 hitMIA13@LV27FinalTop A. Jeanty 32.722 calls17 hitNO30@DET31FinalTop J. Gibbs 33.623 calls21 hitNYJ23@TEN10FinalTop B. Hall 19.823 calls16 hitTB27@CIN33FinalTop B. Irving 20.322 calls16 hitWSH22@PHI24FinalTop J. Hurts 24.722 calls15 hitDEN10@KC31FinalTop K. Walker III 34.1Week 1 matchup edge
History vs their Week 1 opponent
Startable players who have scored well against the team they face in Week 1. Descriptive matchup context, not a start/sit call.
Saquon Barkley
RB · @ WSH26.2PPR/g
5 gm · best 33.8
Malik Nabers
WR · @ DAL25.4PPR/g
3 gm · best 37.7
Kyren Williams
RB · @ SF25.3PPR/g
5 gm · best 31.6
Jayden Daniels
QB · @ PHI23.9PPR/g
2 gm · best 34.4
Christian McCaffrey
RB · @ LAR22.7PPR/g
3 gm · best 27.9
Puka Nacua
WR · @ SF20.8PPR/g
5 gm · best 30.1
Bo Nix
QB · @ KC20.4PPR/g
4 gm · best 33.5
James Cook III
RB · @ HOU19.9PPR/g
2 gm · best 21.9
Jalen Hurts
QB · @ WSH18.8PPR/g
5 gm · best 27.4
Jordan Love
QB · @ MIN18.4PPR/g
5 gm · best 28.4
Week 1 projections
Top projected plays by position
Our Week 1 projections, by position. Every call graded in public.
RB
WR
QB
The numbers
The stats behind every call
Usage and opportunity leaderboards you will not find on a standard site. 2025 season, refreshed weekly.
Who owns the goal line
Redzone touch share
player's share of the team's redzone touches (min 3 touches)
- 1Christian McCaffreySF55%17 gms
- 2
Jahmyr GibbsDET49%17 gms - 3
Ashton JeantyLV42%17 gms - 4
Jonathan TaylorIND42%17 gms - 5
Derrick HenryBAL40%17 gms
Who runs the offense downfield
Air-yards share
player air yards / team air yards: TRUE air-yards share from nflverse (min 20 targets).
- 1
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA50%17 gms - 2
Tetairoa McMillanCAR43%17 gms - 3
Jaylen WaddleMIA40%16 gms - 4
Chris OlaveNO39%16 gms - 5
Justin JeffersonMIN39%17 gms
How far each quarterback throws
QB aDOT (air yards)
mean air yards per pass attempt: TRUE aDOT from nflverse (min 60 attempts). Row carries deep-rate (air yards ≥ 20) + a left/middle/right split.
- 1
Marcus MariotaWSH10.2010 gms - 2
Jameis WinstonNYG9.383 gms - 3
Matthew StaffordLAR9.1417 gms - 4
Drake MayeNE9.1317 gms - 5Jalen HurtsPHI9.0116 gms
Best opportunity (WOPR proxy)
Opportunity Score (proxy)
1.5·target-share + 0.7·deep-target-share + 0.6·rush-share: an Opportunity PROXY, not WOPR
- 1Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA0.9317 gms
- 2
Zay FlowersBAL0.7617 gms - 3
Jameson WilliamsDET0.7516 gms - 4Tetairoa McMillanCAR0.7117 gms
- 5Justin JeffersonMIN0.7117 gms
Sell-high: most TDs over expected
TDs over expected (sell-high)
actual minus opportunity-based expected TDs: positive = TD-lucky, a regression-DOWN watch. Descriptive (expected TDs), not a start/sit call.
- 1Jahmyr GibbsDET+5.618 TD · 12.4 xTD
- 2Jonathan TaylorIND+4.720 TD · 15.3 xTD
- 3
De'Von AchaneMIA+3.312 TD · 8.7 xTD - 4James Cook IIIBUF+3.015 TD · 12.0 xTD
- 5
RJ HarveyDEN+2.411 TD · 8.6 xTD
Most efficient per target
EPA / target (our EP)
receiving EPA per target from our EP model
- 1Puka NacuaLAR+0.76166 vol
- 2
Kayshon BoutteNE+0.7146 vol - 3
Alec PierceIND+0.6883 vol - 4
Tyquan ThorntonKC+0.6737 vol - 5
Isaac TeSlaaDET+0.6226 vol
New · Following
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Add the players you actually care about, your roster across every league plus your watchlist, and get the whole numbers section scoped to just them: snap share, target share, air yards, red-zone role, opportunity, and our graded receipts. Free with an account.
Snap shareTarget shareAir-yards shareRed-zone roleOpportunityOur receipts